A forecasting framework that measures how voters evaluate candidates’ future leadership abilities and policy expertise accurately anticipated the closely contested outcome of the 2024 United States ...

Multiple instances of individuals using inside information to place bets on prediction markets have also allegedly occurred in recent months.

A few days before the first round of Los Angeles’s mayoral primary, Kalshi and Polymarket gave reality TV star Spencer Pratt a 75 percent chance of advancing to the general election. Kalshi published ...

Add Yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. Polymarket advertisements predict a victory for Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral election in November 2025. (Olga ...

The significant boom of prediction markets is pushing U.S. elections into uncharted territory, prompting concern and scrutiny about the risks and regulation of betting on political outcomes. But the ...

Corrections and clarifications: This story has been updated to add new information and clarify the distinction between state-level election betting laws and prediction market regulations. U.S. states ...

Sara Jacobs disclosed selling up to $1 million of QCOM, fueling a bill bundling congressional stock trading and prediction-market bans into one package. Daniel Meuser's repeated NVDA trades and ...

WASHINGTON — As Spencer Pratt fell behind in the Los Angeles mayoral primary, an unexpected group began claiming election fraud: people tracking the Republican’s success on prediction markets, the ...

As Spencer Pratt fell behind in the Los Angeles mayoral primary, an unexpected group began claiming election fraud: people tracking the Republican’s success on prediction markets, the increasingly ...