Nov 17, 2022 · Who’s ahead in the Rhode Island governor race? An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean. Our average includes all candidates that …

Nov 8, 2016 · Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each race. Here are the expected margins of victory in each state.

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible.

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that …

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that …

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that …

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that …

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that …

Apr 7, 2020 · FiveThirtyEight's Florida polls and forecast for the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election.

Nov 7, 2016 · Two of four polls Emerson published today are leaning toward Clinton, both by a single point and well within the margin of error. In Nevada, Clinton is ahead 47% to 46%. In New …